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Chinese airlines revenue growth to outpace regional, global peers in 2018-20

2018/7/15 11:51:13
Air China will be the world’s most valuable airline by market capitalization within the next three years powered by its multi-year growth potential. Chinese carriers will benefit from double-digit earnings growth driven by strong demand, higher cost economies and capacity additions.

Revenue growth driven by capacity expansion

Chinese airlines revenue growth will outpace both regional and global peers in 2018-20 driven primarily by a significant capacity and network expansion.

From 2012-17, Chinese airlines’ revenue increased by a CAGR of 4.3%, outpacing Delta’s topline CAGR of 2.4%. From 2018-20, Chinese carriers’ revenue is forecasted to accelerate at double the pace, at a CAGR of 9.7%, whereas Delta top-line will grow at a CAGR of 3%.

Double-digit profit CAGR for Chinese airlines

Chinese airlines’ profit grew at a CAGR of 16% in 2012-17, lagging U.S. carriers Delta (18%) and United (28%). Demand, lower costs and consolidation in the U.S. aviation market helped U.S. carriers’ profitability.

For 2018-20, Chinese carriers’ profit is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of over 20%, whereas earnings growth for U.S. carriers is expected to be muted.

Chinese airlines’ capacity will grow 50% by 2022

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates show domestic annual capacity growth through 2022 at a CAGR of 9% in the low-case scenario, 9.7% in the expected case, and 11.2% in a high-case scenario.

Continued international expansion by Chinese airlines will also fuel additional aircraft demand, benefiting the two big global manufacturers Boeing and Airbus.

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